Popularity doesn’t equal validity

Within the last few days I’ve encountered several examples of an incredibly stupid argument that somehow fools many, many people. Here it is in a nutshell:

If something is successful in the marketplace, its success is proof that it works.

If a book sells a gazillion copies, it’s because the information it contains is sound. If a marketing program stands the test of time, it’s because those who use it make money. And if a given diet becomes and stays popular, it’s because it helps people lose weight better than other plans do. Sounds logical, right? It isn’t.

These things may in fact work, but their popularity doesn’t provide any proof one way or the other. Here’s a true story that will illustrate my point:

Many years ago I met a man who claimed to have made millions selling a fishing lure that was, at one time, all the rage. Fishermen everywhere simply couldn’t get enough of this super-duper, fish-catchin’ bait. After listening to him talk about it for a while, I asked him point blank, “I know it’s popular, but did the lure actually work?” He looked me straight in the eye and said, “Absolutely. It caught fishermen like crazy.” And with that, he and his bulging wallet went on their merry way.

So you tell me - did his lure work? It depends on what you mean by the word “work.” Did it catch fish any better than other baits? Who knows. Did it make more money than other baits? You bet your sweet bippy. So the answer is yes. The bait did work - for him!

The truth is, the fact that something succeeds in the market place is not in and of itself proof that it “works.” It is, however, proof that its marketing works.

So the next time someone tries to convince you that something “works” simply because it has been successful in the marketplace, they may be right. It may, in fact, work great. But not necessarily in the way you think it does.

Posted on Friday, January 21, 2005 at 11:58 AM

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